Matchday: July 1

Today we have some very interesting match ups.  It should come as no surprise that right off the bat we see some FIFA controlled advantage built in for Argentina (the favourite team of FIFA President Sepp Blatter) as they get to play in Sao Paulo where its not hot or humid.  Argentina being a cold weather country will love this.  It won't be to the disadvantage of the Swiss weather wise.  But Sao Paulo is also much closer to Argentina than most of the stadia are and thus it will be easier to pack it with Argentinian fans.  In the Belgium vs USA match, the game will be played in Salvador where it will be hot and muggy.  These are conditions the USA are used to and that should help them some.

In Argentina vs Switzerland we see two pretty even teams.  Argentina has a strong lineup and lots of talent on the bench.  It features an overrated Lionel Messi.  If you watch him you will realize that this man loses countless balls in midfield and the final third of the pitch.  He does almost no running and never helps his team defend.  For him to get a goal he needs about 40 passes to him in attacking situations before he gets one.  He essentially walks around the final third of the pitch, cherry picking waiting for a pass.  Out of 40 passes that he gets in the attacking part of the pitch he may score one.  As such he is very inefficient.  He is though, surrounded by a very talented supporting cast and players which are much better than him, like Di Maria.  Di Maria, runs, defends, rarely loses the ball, crosses a lot and creates a lot of havoc for the opponents. Argentina's main weakness is a very poor coaching staff.  Strategically, Sabella reveals in every game why he is not a good enough coach to succeed in the european leagues.  He just doesn't understand how to use his players to the maximum benefit of the team.  He has so much talent on the team that he has been able to win a couple of games by chance.  That is, Argentina won despite him being the coach, not because of him.

The Swiss, by contrast have an exceptionally wise and excellent coach.  Expect him to present a masterminded game plan and give Argentina many problems.  The Swiss win because of their coach.  They don't have anywhere near the same quality in the group of 23 players as Argentina does.  But they can present a starting 11 that is pretty close.  They have some speed up front which will disrupt Argentina regularly.  Their defence can play compact and effectively.  Their result against a powerful France was poor.  But they were demoralized and mentally out of the game after the second goal and thats why the score was run up.  They are not as bad the 5-0 result would suggest.

So while Argentina is the favourite and should win here I would be surprised if the Swiss pull an upset.  Argentina will have favourable cool, dry weather, a virtual home game with all the fans making the drive to Sao Paulo and momentum from a good bunch of results in the first round.  The Swiss will be better than anyone they faced in the first round.  Argentina will also realize how Messi has difficulty handling the pressure of big decisive games.   If the Swiss bring their lines up and pressure the defensive midfield of Argentina in the zone of construction ( defensive third of the pitch) expect Argentina to have many problems.  This Argentina is good but with a well executed game plan they can be beat by the Swiss side which is definitely no pushover.

USA vs Belgium - While Belgium is a very strong team on paper, they haven't yet shown their full potential this tournament.  Their lineup is star studded.  They have some of the bet players from all european clubs in their lineup.  They seem to have a tendency to lay down to their opponents and don't decide on imposing their game consistently.  The USA has the following advantages to combat Belgiums superiority: better coach, perhaps the best athletes in the Cup (bigger, stronger, faster), weather, fan support at the stadium, a notable strength of their group of players.  While on paper Belgium's starting 11 is capable of beating the best of teams on a good day, they should not take a lackadaisical attitude against this US team.  My feeling though is that they will.  And that may cost them the game.  If I had to pick an upset I would say this will be it and that the USA can and will pull it off.  It will be a great day for the continued growth of the sport in America if this upset occurs.  But I think there is a constellation of factors today that makes an American upset possible and likely.  That said, bear in mind Belgium is one of the best teams in football and I warned all readers to watch for them to do serious damage so if they pass the USA they WILL eliminate argentina