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Sunday, 21 September 2014
Big win over Moreirense
Jardel continues to concern me. I would like to see JJ give Lisandro Lopez an opportunity.
One problem I see from the standpoint of using all the players available is JJ is once again using the same players over and over. This will have very problematic effects at the end of the season if it continues. There is no point having a plantel of over 25 players if you only use the same 13 or 14 every week. When will Enzo or Luisao or Maxi get to rest ? Is Gaitan gonna have to play 90 minutes every game ? For a club who wants to win several competitions, this is simply not sustainable.
I hope this situation improves.
Wednesday, 17 September 2014
Benfica Supporters: Simply the Best
The Benfica players never gave up and sought the goal until the last minute. Not oblivious to the incredible effort and work ethic the players put in, their supporters did something I have never seen before in sport.
At the 89th minute, they began a chant, and standing applause while chanting it. The stadium burst into chant for at least 10 minutes (well after the match was done). They chanted "Ohhh ohhh ohhh, Eu Amo o Benfica" (which means I love Benfica).
The coach and president of the club made statements lauding this incredible spontaneous manifestation of love for their club. This is the kind of thing money just can't buy. The passion, the understanding of the game and the effort of their players, the commitment and the love of club from the No Name Boys who started the chant and the rest of the supporters generally who joined in and sustained it. Its a beautiful thing to see. Here is the longest clip I have been able to find on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rbh5mrZvzo
Also here is the statement of the President:
Mensagem do presidente
Luís Filipe Vieira: “Obrigado a todos”
Saturday, 13 September 2014
Benfica win 5-0 and confirm all my predictions
As I documented months ago, Talisca had the raw talent and needed time to learn the system. It seems that time has begun to bear fruits. After a couple of solid games he exploded on to the scene yesterday with 3 goals. More importantly though, I noticed him making much less intakes He is learning the positionings that JJ wants him to.
The trio of Gaitan, Talisca and Salvio playing behind Lima is really starting to gel. Our defence with its 3 pillars from last year staying the same (Maxi, Luisao and Jardel) are enhanced by Eliseu which I have always maintained here is a BIG improvement on any of our left backs last year.
Samaris played cautiously as he should in his first match for the club and I liked how he communicated well with Luisao to ensure he was in the right places at the right times.
I liked how JJ made the early double substitution to give the boys some rest for the match against Zenit. Cristante came on and got a few touches. He confirmed his love for the long pass. We didn't see enough of him to draw any conclusions yet. Furthermore it was at a point in the game where it was no longer really a competitive match as Benfica was winning 5-0.
The Talisca match shows how brilliant they were to keep him and get rid of Bernardo Silva. Many clamoured to let Silva play that position but Silva is a second division calibre player and could never have done what Talisca did.
Lets hope for a good result against Zenit. As I predicted all along, the team is fine and will have another dominant year.
Tuesday, 19 August 2014
Jornada 1 Recap and New Signings
NEW SIGNINGS:
Sporting signed Nani who is definitely a credible player upfront. They lose Rojo which means they now have no credible defenders save and except for Cedric. Cedric is also hurt now. As good as Nani is I don't consider him good enough to get a starting role if he were to play on Porto or Benfica but he will surely start at Sporting. What does it change ? Not much. Sporting will improve their attack but will suffer many more goals with the loss of Rojo who was the heart and soul of their defence. All the move will do for Sporting is sell them a few more tickets as fans will want to watch Nani play.
Julio Cesar - a goalie with a storied career, it remains unknown if he will play at the calibre he did at Inter Milan. I don't envision him walking into the starting role though. Artur, as much as I don't like him, has had two consecutive shutouts in official games and stopped 4 penalty shots in those two games. Given his history with the club and "mistica"related attributes he will continue to start until he messes up. Essentially Julio Cesar is a warning to Artur to step his game up or he will be benched. In that sense alone it is a positive signing. Should Cesar end up getting opportunities to play I see no reason to believe he will play any worse than he did at the World Cup -- where he performed brilliantly. He was the second reason (after the referee in the Croatia game) that Brazil made it out of the first round. Didn't cost Benfica a penny in transfer fees either which is positive.
Saturday, 16 August 2014
Preview of Benfica vs Pacos de Ferreira
They had some troubles finishing last week but of course that would have been worked on and practiced at length over the past 6 days. With Benfica being at home, well rested, and well prepared with a star studded lineup that won everything last year this game should be a blow out. A good old fashioned "goleada".
Tuesday, 12 August 2014
Sporting CP: not a title contender
Let's forget for a minute that they will surely lose Rojo and William Carvalho within days if not weeks. Let's forget for a minute that there is probably no club in the world that has such an engrained mentality of losing and celebrating losing and unsuccess as this club (case in point the portuguese national team who allowed a loser with the Sporting loser mentality and his sporting and former sporting pathetic choices to destroy the teams World Cup). Forget for a moment that their new coach is a weak man and spineless leader who is so unsure of himself he can't look reporters in the eye when they ask him a question. Forget for a moment that in comparison to last year they have not improved their starting spots at any position... They are still no serious threat.
A look at their starting lineup tells you they have a few good players (so do Maritimo and Nacional) but certainly nobody to suggest they will do better than last year. And last year was - no European competition, not even making a final of Cup or League Cup, finishing 7 points back in the League. This year they will have the additional 6 games to play for the Champions League. These games will not only increase their fatigue but will demoralize them as I am prepared to guarantee they will finish dead last in whatever group they are in.
This is a side who had it easy last year and still finished 7 points back. They had no pressure or expectations, no European matches to increase fatigue and no long runs in either the cup or league cup games. And they still failed miserably to do anything. When you look at that lineup ask yourself this question: do they have one player who could start on Benfica or FC Porto ? The answer to that question is a resounding "NO".
This is a team of pretenders with no budget or top flite talent to be taken seriously. When discussing the league they should be grouped with "the rest of the small teams". After all this club is a small team and has no prospects at all to win the league or any other trophy this year. I certify this declaration with the Prophet Guarantee.
Monday, 11 August 2014
Supercup : Proves why they call me Prophet
Benfica urgently needs to sign one or two goalies.
Benfica remains incredibly strong .
The lineup is virtually unchanged from last year.
The starting lineup in the Supercup had only 2 new players.
Eliseu is a better left back than anyone who played that position for us last year .
Jorge Jesus has the team performing like a finely oiled machine.
Sure there were some problems finishing as 38 shots did not find the back of the net. But that will drastically improve as it is worked on heavily this week. We know that players like Lima, Derley, Bebe and Salvio can score and score often. The season kicks off on Sunday for every other team and I assure you by Sundays game against Paços, the goals will be there.
The club at this stage has to put all it's effort and resources into keeping Enzo and Gaitan rather than signing other players. If Enzo leaves, that money will be used to bring in excellent young replacements. Now that all the classless rifraf like Cavaleiro and Silva are gone and done being distractions the real quality players will keep improving as Benfica charges ahead to its second consecutive title.
It was good to see JJ give Talisca a boost with the start. He had a good game though it could have been better. This is a young player with lots of talent and his performance will only go up .
Winning the Supercup is big and it does a lot more than just make Benfica add another piece of silverware to the trophy museum. It helps in these ways too:
Immediately kills the pressure and negative media from the pre-season.
Boosts the players confidence in the group.
The utter dominance the team displayed may help convince Enzo and or Gaitan that the team has not lost any quality and it is worthwhile for them to stay.
The quality of play also attracts other players who see that Benfica is as dominant and complete as last season.
The many new players that work each day with the team and watch from the bench saw before their eyes how the team is supposed to play and what the coach expects.
All said, I continue my thesis that Benfica will dominate every competition this year, that a new keeper is a must and another top forward and top central or defensive midfielder would be welcome, and that the young players who were loaned out had no place on this team .
Sunday, 10 August 2014
Preview of Benfica vs Rio Ave
Rio have some good dangerous and fast players up front in Ukra and delValle. But they wont have the ball much as Benfica's midfield will surely impose its dominance. No chance Benfica loses. They are too dominant and strong and have a lineup almost identical to last year's. But stronger. Bebe and Derley are both better than Rodrigo was and Eliseu is better than anyone who played left back last season.
Friday, 8 August 2014
Myths about Jorge Jesus
Many say Jorge Jesus doesn't give young portuguese players an opportunity. That is a total myth. He doesn't give lousy players an opportunity because he gives opportunities to the players that show the most quality. Lets look at Nelson Oliveira, now returned from yet ANOTHER failed loan experience abroad. He was on loan to Rennes in France where he flopped. He was so lacking in quality that the club was forced to sign a forward in the January transfer window because he was that bad. Read the reviews of his coach there and of the local media who were stunned this guy ever got playing time at a big club like Benfica. A year earlier he was on loan to Deportivo in Spain, where again he flopped. Showed no quality, struggled to earn playing time and when he played he did nothing. All of this comes on the heels of a season where he was given opportunities by JJ even in the Champions League. Had he shown quality he would have grabbed a starting spot and never looked back. This pre-season he returned yet again, was given the chance to play in 3 games so far and again showed nothing. I hope and pray this lousy player is sold. Too many fans don't understand that showing some quality on a B team or under 20 national team does not a good player make. It means they have some potential but very few players can translate that under 20 talent into the big leagues. When you look at national teams, the players that made the lineups in under 20 and under 21 sides are rarely the ones who end up in the lineup of the "A" sides 5 or 6 years later.
Now lets recall a young portuguese player for Benfica who not only played but shined. He earned his opportunities in training and the substitutions he was given. He proved his quality and thus earned a starting spot. He shined and brought much joy to Benfica fans. His name ? FABIO COENTRAO. If you listen to the delusional nationalists you will think this is impossible, after all he was young and portuguese and JJ would never give such a player an opportunity. But that is where their lies fall apart. JJ plays the best he has. He is a meticulous coach and demands very much from his players. He observes them in training and expects the world of them when they set foot on the pitch. Some players can perform to those standards, most cannot. He does not care what the nationality is.
Fabio Coentrao met those rigourous standards. Bernardo Silva did not. Andre Almeida met those standards, Ivan Cavaleiro did not. Andre Gomes met those standards. Nelson Oliveira did not. If you are a Benfica supporter you should NOT want JJ to field a bunch of mediocre players that will make us lose games just because they are young and portuguese.
The coach is one of the best paid and most respected football minds in the world. Countless young players have seen their careers explode to success under his tutelage. They must show extremely high quality. The likes of Fabio Coentrao, DiMaria, Axel Witsel, Nemaja Matic, Rodrigo just to name a few were all young. All from different countries. All had to wait a long time to earn their time and when they did they made the most of it.
Ivan Cavaleiro played 19 games last year for Benfica and got one goal. Is that the standard we should expect from our attacking players ? If it is, then we will finish in 10th or 15th place. We want quality, not nationalism. Save nationalism for Nazis. Im a Benfiquista and I want to win at all costs. If that means no Portuguese players on the team, then so be it. Let the best play and bring us success. Sporting have tried and failed at playing young Portuguese players. We see all the success it has brought them. We don't want to be a club of losers like Sporting. We want successes. And the coach knows what it takes.
So lets leave nationalism aside and support our Club and our Coach.
Thursday, 7 August 2014
Good moves: Benfica loans out young players
Starting with Ivan Cavaleiro, this is a good move for several reasons. He is a quality player. With the opportunities he has had to play on the "A" squad he has not disappointed. He has shown speed, explosiveness, he is not shy to have a shot from anywhere, he defends well and has a nice soft touch on his passes when needed. After years in the B team and solid play in the Portugal Under 20 and Under 21 sides its time for his breakout year. Problem is, he wouldn't get enough playing time on Benfica to have the breakout that I expect him to have. Benfica's wings are like a treasure chest of elite quality players. With the likes of Gaitan, Salvio, Sulejmani, Ola John, Pizzi, Bebe it would be difficult for Ivan to get the quantity and consistency of playing time needed for him to affirm himself as a top elite pro this year.
I think his loan is good for him and I think the team he was loaned to is perfect. He was loaned to Deportivo La Coruna who returns to the Spanish top division this year. Deportivo being a team not nearly as deep in top quality attackers as Benfica is, he will be relied on heavily there to play and perform. So he will be playing in a great league against great competition while playing on a team that isn't as deep in quality which translates into him getting a lot of minutes. Also, his defending and closing of spaces will improve a lot as Deportivo is one of the weaker teams in La Liga so he will have to adapt to being on a side that doesn't control the ball for most of the game. All of these factors translate into a high likelihood of Ivan learning a lot, maturing a lot and playing a lot. That equals a recipe for success with this loan which will translate into one of two positive outcomes:
1. His quality is sufficient at the end of the year to earn him a starting spot upon returning to Benfica .
2. His quality is sufficient to merit a large cash offer for his purchase.
In either scenario Benfica wins.
Now Bernardo Silva. I think he is the most overrated player in the universe of Benfica fan chatter online. They try to make this kid look like a Football God (just like they did with Miguel Rosa and David Simao - we saw how they turned out didn't we !!! -- oh thats right, you have probably never heard of them -- thats because they suck). He will be loaded to AS Monaco in France will he will encounter a good coach in Leonardo Jardim who works well with young developing talent. My position is and has always been that Silva is one of those players who looks good in tier 2 competition. He can look great playing in the second division where he regularly plays on the B team. He has had several opportunities to play with the A squad and never earned as much as a positive note in any reviews. He is small, slow, passes poorly under pressure, loses all balls in the air and can't defend worth a s***. It is great to see him loaned out because:
1. it will shut up the nationalist Benfica fans who demand he play. If this kid were to get playing time on Benfica we would have the same results that Sporting CP does by playing all their youth "talent" we saw the fruits of that last season where Sporting played all their young kids, didn't win any trophies nationally, didn't even make a final of any of the cups, didn't qualify for the european competitions and their best young player, Carvalho, was but a backup on the national team. Silly nationalism that says this kid must be great because he is portuguese and young is illogical, irrational and blind to reality. If Bernardo Silva had quality he would have played regularly on the "A" squad. He would have gotten more playing time. These same delusional people said Nelson Oliveira was the next Ronaldo when he got a bit of playing time a few seasons ago for Benfica. Not only did he fail to earn a spot on Benfica he was loaned out, not once but twice - to Spain at Deportivo and then the next year to France at Rennes. Each time he failed miserably. Neither team wanted to keep him and he got less and less playing time. These delusional fans will blame JJ for his "not being able to show what he has". Baloney !!! He has had ample opportunities in 3 different teams over the past 3 years and no coach wants him on the field.
2. It will confirm, at the end of the season which will be another miserable failure for Bernardo Silva that JJ was correct to not give him time and suggest he be loaned out. This kid sucks. He has no place on the "A" squad. And those that demand he play on the "A" squad are putting their nationalistic irrationality above the interests of the club. If Silva played in Benfica's starting 11 it would GUARANTEE they could not win the championship.
So im glad to see this lousy player off the team. We want quality. And quality doesn't see itself in nationalistic colours.
Tuesday, 5 August 2014
Benfica starting lineup will be much the same
Goalkeeper - Artur will play. He played the vast majority of games last year. Benfica was leading in points when Oblak started to play towards the end of the year. Artur also played most of the Europa League and Cup games. No real change from last year. He started 30 games for Benfica last year. So anyone who tells you the keeper is not the same as last year as a bald faced liar.
Defence - Those who claim Siqueira was a starter fail to look at facts. He only played in 18 games for the League and did not start all of them. So he was a starter half the time. Eliseu will play now and thats the only real change in defence except for the switch of Jardel for Garay. Jardel played 18 games in total last year, same as Siqueira played in the League. So for those who will argue Benfica lost a starter in Siqueira, I would counter that by that logic Jardel was also a starter having played 18 games. Luisao and Maxi are also holdovers. Defence - one substantive change. Three of the four players regularly played for Benfica last year.
Midfield - Enzo Perez and Ruben Amorim will start here. Both regularly played and/or started. No real change at all.
Wings - Gaitan and Salvio will start here. Both regularly played and started last year. Markovic only saw playing time when Salvio got hurt. After his return they split the duties. No change at all here.
Forward - Lima and one other option (maybe Jara, maybe Bebe) - one real change.
So with a lineup of : ARTUR;
MAXI, LUISAO, JARDEL, Eliseu
ENZO PEREZ, RUBEN AMORIM
SALVIO, GAITAN
LIMA, (Jara or Bebe)
Above, I listed the players in all caps who regularly started or played for the squad in all caps. As you can see only Eliseu and the second forward will be players who did not regularly start or play for the squad.
So all this B.S. about "8 starters" being gone is a blatant lie. Its simply not true. The strength of the team last year was that most players didn't "own" their position and the lineup was always subject to change except for a few players like Luisao, Lima, Enzo Perez, Gaitan (all of which will still be in the lineup this year!). What we can deduce from the lineup that will play on Sunday is that we will see a Benfica with the same overwhelming strength and dominance of previous years. People said it was the end of the world when DiMaria, Ramires, Javi, Witsel and David Luiz and Matic left. It wasn't. The club kept enough regular and long term benfica players rotated into the lineups and subs that the transition for any new players was made easy. The same thing will happen again. The core of the team is exactly the same. There will be liars who will pretend Ola John, Sulejmani, Andre Almeida (played 26 games alone) were also not playing for Benfica previously but to them I would suggest you again relay the facts.
This Benfica team has kept intact a core of players who are experienced, know exactly how the coach wants them to play, are excellent at what they do. Immediate quality has already been brought into the roster with Eliseu and Bebe and Pizzi and Lisandro Lopez who were not on the squad last year. Another few signings will still be made and they will surely be of top quality too. Additionally, Talisca, Cancelo and Teixeira will continue to work with the team and improve to eventually start getting some playing time as subs and the cycle continues. New and young players don't always make an immediate impact. Remember Matic, Andre Gomes, and Rodrigo took a very long time to start playing regularly. Does that mean they didn't have quality ? Of course not. But by keeping the core starting lineup essentially the same as last year, the club will be able to have the stable core that keeps them winning while the other players grow and learn and eventually start to accumulate playing time.
Accordingly all the panic stirred up in the media and blogosphere is for motives that are not based in reality. Whether its enemies of Benfica pushing these myths, or newspapers wanting to sell papers, or obsessed nationalists who think benfica should play mediocre and lousy talent from the B team just because they are portuguese. Its all nonsense. The starting lineup will have very little change from last year. All but two of the starters regularly played or started last year. Those are the facts.
Expect a very determined and focused Benfica to hammer Rio Ave. I think Benfica should win by 3 or 4 goals. Why ? Because the team is just as strong as it was last year.
Monday, 4 August 2014
Goodbye Oscar "Tacuara" Cardozo
Well today Benfica parted ways with its 9th leading scorer in its 110 year history. Oscar Cardozo spent 7 seasons with the club and was a most lethal of strikers that will be remembered fondly by the club's history. Sold for $5 million euros, given his age and declining performance was a good move by the club. It also frees them of the obligation to pay his very high salary.
It was important that the club cash in on him while they still can. He no longer fit into the coaches model of the game and would likely see his goal totals decline sharply with the reduced playing time. That said, he was still a very important player for the club. Scoring countless critical goals, a warrior in any weather, and though he lacked speed he never lacked effort. His left foot will never be forgotten by the Benfiquistas.
Frequently the supporters would yield banners featuring his image and name at home games. His legend so strong that a chant was regularly sung during games by the large Torcida called No Name Boys. I have provided a link to the song below.
This is the business of football. He will move on to Turkey and earn a nice tax free salary of 2.5 million euros over the next 3 years but is the type of player who will always hold Benfica dear to his heart. He said today that his best goal was against Sporting. He certainly was a Sporting destroyer over the 7 years and that is part of the reason this man will always be remember as a legendary striker for the legendary club of Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Thank you for all the memories, good luck and God bless you Oscar Tacuara Cardozo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lU1I7n3xHxI
Readers thoughts on Karnezis
The Djavan Episode
Coach Jorge Jesus had long craved to have Malaga's LB Eliseu on the team but it had not materialized. So Djavan, an experienced LB who played in the Portuguese first division was a smart signing as he would not need an adaptation period for the type of play in Portugal. Benito was also added as a young backup who could be worked and stay on the club if enough quality was shown or be loaned out for a year to develop further.
Of course, the eye was never taken off the ball with respect to Eliseu, and if he could be signed he would be. So the question becomes, why not wait until the outcome with Eliseu was known before signing Djavan? Here is the answer: so that Sporting CP could not sign him.
Sporting CP is not really strong at many positions, but it certainly isn't strong at LB. Jefferson is not the left back to hang your hopes on if you plan to compete for a title. Djavan would at least provide as much quality if not more and he would be relatively affordable. So why make things easy for Sporting. For a relatively small investment you can force them to go outside the Portuguese league to sign a replacement and that new player may have trouble adapting to the portuguese style of play, weather conditions, turf conditions in many of the teams, etc.
In that sense it was strategic as it was a logical and affordable choice for the rival to sign. Pre-empting them was a smart move. Transfering him to Braga was also a smart move as it strengthens a team that is likely to take points from Porto and Sporting. I would not be surprised if there was some sort of clause in the deal that prevents Djavan from playing against Benfica either.
Presumptively the club incurred no financial loss as it would defy logic if he was transferred for less than he was bought for. So in effect, Benfica got to control his destiny by buying him early. This is an approach that I applaud and think should be continued. Teams like Sporting and Porto tend to seek to address their needs with some of the top players at their respective positions on other first division clubs. Benfica pre-empting them to control the destiny of those players and not allow them to reinforce rivals is good strategic and business sense and it should be a policy that continues to be pursued.
So yes it does look odd on the surface, but when you scratch beneath you find that there is sometimes order in chaos.
What if Enzo Perez and Gaitan are sold ?
Well it will mean Benfica is flush with another 75 million euros on top of the nearly 100 million in sales already executed this offseason. That means Benfica will be forced to make two more signings in addition to the 3 already demanded by coach Jorge Jesus at the post-game presser yesterday. This would put Benfica into a more starkly rebuilding phase as those two players are fundamental pieces in Jorge Jesus' game plan. I don't agree with those who say it would be calamitous. The club just two season ago lost Witsel and Javi Garcia just as the season began and was able to find replacements that adapted quickly.
In the case of Enzo, if he leaves, the club has a player already there who could start immediately - Rubem Amorim - while whomever the new signing is could develop some time to adapt with weeks of training. If Gaitan leaves, well the club is flush with excellent wingers but Gaitan does bring something more than the talent typical of an excellent winger. He is able to bring the game more inside and play very effectively up in front of the net too. His creative abilities are sometimes that only thing that can break the 10 man defences of some of the Portuguese league opponents. He will be harder to replace as he is a player who brings so much to the table. But in terms of tactical options, Benfica has many players who will be able to fill that role while his replacement adapts as well. Pizzi may have the most similar characteristics.
So while it would be difficult for supporters to see the exits of these players at this stage of the season, remember that it would not be without precedent, and wouldn't be impossible to overcome.
What it would mean is that there would be an immediate large infusion of cash and subsequent signing of top quality replacements. On the balance one must consider this: given the season Benfica had, they will never be able to command more $$$ for these players than they can now. They are 27 and 28 years of age. Making those sales now at such a high price will allow the club to avoid making sales next year and the year after because of the financial health it will help bring to the club. So in that sense it is not all bad. If Benfica spends 20 of that 75 million on 2 replacements for these roles specifically, that will assure some very high quality young talent and still have 55 million in the bank to help prevent and/or delay selling any of the best talent next year.
The biggest risk however, is the domino effect their departure could have on other veteran players. Will Maxi or Luisao want to stick around if there two depart ? Will other top players want to sign for a team that allows (or is forced) these two to leave ? Will the coach quit if these two depart ? These are the more serious questions and consequences that have to be considered. In my view the situation requires urgent intervention. The President, Rui Costa and Jorge Jesus need to have an emergency meeting and ideally with the two concerned players or their representatives to clarify:
1. who the new keeper is and when he will be signed
2. who else will be added to the roster and when
3. reiterate the focus on winning
Enzo and Gaitan may decide to stay no matter what the offer is if such assurances are clearly articulated. If top signings are planned for the next few days it doesn't make sense to announce them after a transfer of Enzo or Gaitan is consummated. They need to be in on the loop to help them decide to stay. Decisive days, we await...
Sunday, 3 August 2014
Frango Fest vs Valencia and Pre-season Evaluation
1. The team played its 4th game in 5 days, plus travelling from Portugal to Switzerland, travelling within Switzerland, then flying to England. Over fatigue.
2. Artur is unfortunately still on the team and at least 2 of the goals were infantile save attempts and totally his fault.
3. Luisao, Lisandro - our two starting central defenders did not play at all and are recovering from injury; same goes for Pizzi; Enzo Perez has yet to debut for the squad.
4. Its preseason and the objectives are not to win, but to train and evaluate new talent.
Its becoming clearer that Benfica must not allow Enzo or Gaitan to be sold. It seems JJ is giving more playing time to Candeias - a far inferior player to Ivan Cavaleiro - which suggests Ivan is on his way out. Luis Felipe is a disaster, he has been training for a month and played in most of the games and if he had any quality at all, he would have showed some of it by now. He needs to go. Not the best game for Teixeira but I don't think JJ should give up on him. He has talent and works hard and will improve over the year despite getting little playing time. More positive signs from Derley and Bebe.
After the game JJ stated that the team is waiting for 3 more signings - a keeper, a forward and a defensive midfielder. It is somewhat baffling why these signings have not yet occurred one week from the start of the official season. This President is deserving of harsh criticism for not knowing how to plan a preseason. The moment the previous season ended they should have defined who would or could be sold, who would be brought in for sure and who would be brought in as contingency to replace unforeseen exits. A simple conversation one on one with each of the players that they knew would be subject to inviting offers would have shed much light on the situation.
The club continues to engage in a practice of spending more money on 2 or 3 mediocre players for a position as opposed to spending less for a proven one. I think Benfica needs to sell 5 to 8 of their marginal players instead of repeating the game of loaning musical chairs every year. They have too many athletes on the payroll and constantly being loaned out. The Djavan fiasco is an embarrassment.
I believe the Coach is doing the best he can with the hand he has been dealt. And make no mistake, I think the squad is still extremely strong and will kickoff the next two official games with resounding wins. The starting lineup that Benfica promises to present will be exceptional. Yes it will be missing Siqueira, Garay, Rodrigo and Markovic. But it will include Eliseu, Lisandro, Derley and Salvio. The keeper position remains unresolved but I expect that our new keeper will be signed in the next day or two and will start against Rio Ave. The starting lineup that Benfica will present at this point should have as much quality as the one last year. The bench may not be as strong at this point but more signings are expected.
Supporters are overreacting to the importance of pre-season results. This pre-season has been productive. It has shown us a few things:
A) there is a group of players that clearly have no legitimate place on this roster - to name a few: Bernardo Silva, Nelson Oliveira, Candeias, Luis Felipe, Sidnei, Artur
B) there are some that have shown good potential and will clearly improve with time and daily work: Benito, Cancelo, Teixeira, Derley, Bebe, Talisca
C) That retaining Luisao, Maxi, Salvio, Ruben, Andre Almeida, Ola John, Jardel, Lima, Sulejmani, Gaitan, Enzo - has now become imperative to assist the transition of the new players into the system without calamity. Keeping this base is now fundamental because of the number of players that left. Keeping this stable core group will elevate the baseline performance of the team and make it easier for new players to substitute in when needed without having a total collapse.
D) There are still unknowns but those unknowns are likely to be very positive. For example - Pizzi had a great season in La Liga. He is a versatile player who can strengthen the team at various positions. The identity of the new Keeper is unknown but he can only be better than Artur - a player I have long claimed responsible for the disaster at the end of the season in 2013. The attacker and midfielder that will be signed will be of top quality. The club made a lot of money with sales this offseason, it had a good look at the players they signed, promoted and returned off loan and knows what its needs are. Now that they had a good look, the diagnosis is complete and they know what they need and have the money they need to sign them. The exit of Cardozo and expected sale of several marginal players this week will only bolster the money available to make such signings. It should be emphasized that the sale of Cardozo not only brings in 6 million euros, but also relieves the club of his large salary. So while these two players at this point are unknown (as to their identity), we can be sure they will not be Luis Felipe type of bums. They will be excellent players. That means the team will only be strengthened.
E) That the club seemingly engaged in strategic signings. That is, while the signings of Djavan and Candeias don't seem to make sense, I think they were signed so that Sporting could not sign them. This way the club controls who and where they will play. If that is the case, they were probably smart moves. This info was suggested by a source close to lawyer David Dasilva but no club confirmation of it yet.
Saturday, 2 August 2014
Emirates Cup - misleading result
Lets start with Talisca. He demonstrates who inferior the level of football played in Brazil is. Against top opponents the decisions that he makes and would get away with in Brazil or against teams like Estoril or Sion, get punished severely. His overpass for an Arsenal throw in just as Benfica was building and holding possession led immediately to an Arsenal goal. In official games he will not ram above Enzo, Ruben, Andre Almeida, Pizzi and Teixeira on the options. He will likely play on in games for the League Cup. He is a player that will grow with a year of training under Jesus and top elite competition from Benfica's star studded roster. But don't expect to see him in more than a handful of official games this season.
Central Defenders next: Sidnei was never even seriously considered to be an option to stay on the squad. He is only playing because Lisandro, Luisao and Jardel are hurt. Im not sure why JJ didn't let Steven Vitoria play any games. But Sidnei gets shuffled every year on loan as he has no talent to play first division football. His infantile errors and constant poor positioning and loss of every one on one battle are laughable. He was connected to 3 of Arsenals goals. His awful play and errors will NOT be a part of Benfica in official games. Cesar again had a weak performance overall with some positive notes though. His decision making will only improve with much training over the year. Again, he is a product of Brazil where the level of football is almost amateurish.
The team stabilized a lot and even got a goal once the first subs were made. Andre Almeida brought some solidness to the midfield.
Lets not forget that this is the teams 3rd game in 4 days. Plus travel from Sion to Fribourg and then from Geneva to London. Eliseu and Bebe still have not proven that they can outright earn a starting spot. The idea of Gaitan supporting the striker was interesting but I would still like to see Bebe experimented in that role. Pizzi will bring a lot of options to the midfield as he starts to train again this week.
Now looking ahead a week to the Supercup against Rio Ave. Luisao and Lisandro or Jardel will transform the quality of the defence astronomically. The errors that gave arsenal all the goals simply will NOT happen. Hopefully we Benfica have a real Keeper by then as Artur really is not starting material but even if he starts, Luisao will make sure everyone is where they are supposed to be. And Rio Ave is no Arsenal. Expect Benfica to pick up an attacker now that Cardozo has departed. Many teams will have top quality players available for loan as they finish up their rosters. Any additional signings will depend on whether or not Gaitan and Enzo depart. At this point I think JJ has to draw a line in the sand and not allow either of them to leave. If either of them leave, surely top elite replacements will be brought in to address their losses.
Our starting defence will be excellent, we will still have many quality midfielders and Lima upfront. The team will not be a weak one in any scenario. Again to all the doomsday's - no reason to panic. Benfica is a club filled with excellent players at every position. They now have a week to rest and put the final touches on the lineup that will face Rio Ave . I predict that will easily beat Rio Ave. Then another whole week to fine tune even further before they will again easily beat Pacos de Ferreira. By August 17th when Benfica has won both their official games, gained confidence and consistency, I suspect all the panic online and in the media will have subsided and everyone will be back on the Benfica "campeao voltou" train. All is well at Benfica. No reason to worry at all.
Friday, 1 August 2014
No reason to worry
I for one, as a Benfica fan am not worried at all by these results. The analysis of them reveals to me that the club signed some very good players. We already know the value of the coach and how well he will work this team and get the best out of the talent he has. With respect to the panic about the exits of a few players, I do not share such panic. Lets look at the players lost and how they were replaced. All the rest are known quantities, from the coach, to the remaining talent, to the style of play and tactics.
Oblak - hard to replace yes. He was surely exceptional. But the loss of Oblak does not mean the end of the word. Sevilla didn't need Oblak to win the Europa League. Benfica didnt need Oblak to win all its 32 other titles. I agree we need to sign a good starting keeper and we will. Its the cheapest position in terms of what will need to be spent in order to bring in a good starter.
Siqueira - a very good but injury prone left back. Was he worth paying $2.2 million in net salary to keep ?? No. The President did the right thing in letting him go. Before he came to Benfica he was an average starter in the Spanish Liga. He didn't regularly play for his national team. He didn't play for one of the big teams in Spain. Now all of a sudden Benfica fans make it seem like he was a God. He wasn't. He was a good player. Remember he was the second choice to Eliseu who arguably has enjoyed the same stature and level of play in La Liga as Siqueira did. Is Eliseu a long term solution ? No. He is 30. But he will do for this year. Benito is the long term solution and is showing much already. He will only improve. All the times Andre Almeida was asked to play that position he played just fine too. I am not worried at all about this position.
Fejsa - this injury hurts the team a lot. This too is not the end of the world. He will be back in January. Andre Almeida can play this position well. So can Amorim. I think the choice should be tailored to the opponent and thus replaced by committee. Joao Teixiera has shown a lot of promise and will only improve further as a backup. If needed Eliseu could also play this position. This position is largely tactical as well.
Markovic - He was a great player who at the end of the season divided the position with Salvio. We still have Salvio. We also have Ola John back who is playing well. We also have Bebe who with work can become a dominant player at that position. Yes they are different in characteristics but in JJ's system the role requires speed and explosiveness which all of them have. I don't think its the end of the world that he is gone. Lets not forget that every 1 in 3 games Markovic would disappear. Nobody can tell me that each of the available options will not have success in the 1 on 1 situations on the wing, and stretching the opposing defence and in crossing for many goals.
Garay - another very good player who had a great season. Replaced by Lisandro Lopez who was one of the best central defenders in the Spanish League last year. I watched many of Lopez' games last season and am confident he will make Benfica fans forget Garay very quickly. I think the position remains as strong.
Rodrigo - a good player who has never given playing time until Cardozo got hurt. Yes he scored a beautiful goal against Porto. But the team was far from dependant on Rodrigo. Derley had 8 more goals than he did last season and Derley had a weaker supporting cast. Rodrigo began to perform better when he adjusted properly to the system JJ has in place. Derley has the same physical attributes, same speed and there is no reason to believe he won't learn the system. He definitely has shown an ability to score more goals than Rodrigo did. I continue to emphasize that Bebe should be tried as a replacement at this position as well.
If Gaitan or Enzo leave then the money they bring in will surely guarantee that ample replacements arrive. Neither of these players are Gods or untouchable They are players that know the system JJ played very well and are a strong fit with the team. I want them to stay and I think they will.
As for the rest of the depth in the team, I think Talisca is a player who shows a lot of ability and has great size. Derley is a proven forward who can score, he has great speed, works very hard and runs more than anyone else on the team when he plays. Bebe will be a great addition to the bench who I would like to see tested out playing upfront with Lima. I think those two would combine very well and be havoc for defenders.
If I had to pick a slogan to describe the State of the Nation Benfiquista it would be this : All is well. We will have a very very strong team once again. We will compete with Porto for the title and have no reason not to finish in the top two spots in our Champions League group no mater who is in it. We will be seeded as the top seed this year so will have one very strong team and two other teams that we will be clearly stronger than.
Benfica suporters have to calm down and look at things the way they are and not based on pre-season meaningless scores or headlines in sport journals meant to inspire dissension in the ranks. There is a great abundance of talent on this team. The coach is very capable. Benfica will crush their opposition when it counts !
Thursday, 31 July 2014
Benfica vs Atlethic Bilbao
Noteworthy was Talisca - his worst game so far. His passing was off and he made several dangerous turnovers. Its common for Brazilian players to make such mistakes when they come to europe. Bilbao has been training for a month already and played typical european football of pressing deep in the zone of construction. Brazilian players aren't used to such advanced levels of strategic play so this should have been a good learning experience for him.
Bernardo Silva once again showed his total lack of quality. Cesar played poorly as well. Its hard to take conclusions from a team who played 24 hours ago. But not a good game, and also not disastrous. Bilbao took advantage of their opportunities and didn't make a sub until well after the 70th minute.
The next match will be more revealing as it is against top competition and will feature the likely starters minus those who are still injured. Lets bear in mind that Benfca has played the entire preseason without their two starting central defenders and their starting defensive midfielder Fejsa.
Wednesday, 30 July 2014
Post game analysis: after Sion
Defense: Eliseu played much better than he did against Ajax. It is looking like he should start at left defence but Benito will be a solid backup. The central defenders performed amply but it was against fragile opponent and thus not a real test. In any event, its unlikely Sidnei will remain on the team anyways and Cesar will be a backup to Luisao and Lisandro. On the right side Benfica had solid play from both Maxi and Joao Cancelo - who switched to the left side late in the game.
Defence is shaping up to look like this: Maxi, Luisao, Lisandro, Eliseu. Backups - Cancelo, Benito, Jardel, Cesar.
Midfield: Excellent play there again today. Another underpeformance from Salvio, but a marked improvement for Bebe who showed good speed, presence and playmaking ability. I wonder if JJ may consider playing him upfront beside Lima given the underperformance of Lima and the uselessness of Cardozo. Joao Teixeira continues to show maturity above his years. He continues to struggle with his finishing despite the goal that he required to tries at to score. Andre Almeida and Ruben Amorim showed the quality we are used to despite still finding their physical form. Ola John again played well but could have played better. His decision making needs to improve or the risks he takes could backfire against better opposition. Talisca continues to progress and will be a viable alternative to Enzo. Midfield should look like this:
Salvio, Andre Almeida, Enzo Perez, Gaitan. Backups: Bebe, Ola John, Joao Teixeira, Ruben Amorim, Talisca, Pizzi.
Attack: Though he has not yet scored, Lima is still in form and will start. Derley, while showing flashes of raw skill is not looking like a clear choice to play alongside him yet. He missed two glaring header opportunities today. And they were situations where a forward must finish. Nothing to do with fitness, knowing the system, etc. Clear scoring opportunities. Missed. Nelson Oliveira is showing why he failed to impress and earn playing time at: Benfica, Deportivo (Spain), Rennes (France) and now back on Benfica again. He just isn't good enough. He reminds me of Miguel Rosa and Bernardo Silva - two players which Benfica fans hype up without merit just because they are portuguese and formed in Benfica's youth squads. Sure Miguel Rosa looked decent playing for the B team in the second division. But if you listened to the Benfica fans that blindly cheer for any young portuguese player, you would think he was the next Figo. He isn't. He is rotting away fighting for playing time at terrible Belenenses. He will never be a big player and never play on a big team. My position is that Bernardo Silva is the exact same. And its looking more and more like Nelson Oliveira belongs in that category also. He showed nothing against this weak Sion side. How many more opportunities must he have? He needs to be cut.. That leaves a problem because Cardozo is increasingly revealing how useless he has become. Derley is failing to live up to his promise thus far, though his speed and good passing will still make him very useful upfront alongside Lima even if his finishing remains weak. Jara may be in the hunt for a spot but Jara starting is not how you attack a Championship Title. This is why I earlier suggested JJ may want to try playing Bebe upfront alongside with Lima to see what results
The starters at this point look like: Lima and Derley. Backups should be: Cardozo, Victor Andrade, *Bebe. Though I think Cardozo should be sold and with that money a forward should be acquired to replace him.
Tomorrow's game will be against Bilbao but due to the sequence of games yesterday and today as well as on Aug 2 and 3rd, players will play based more on saving the better players for the tournament in England. So it will be less introspective than todays match. That said, the team is showing a marked improvement and with Enzo added this week should be firing on all cylinders for the Supercup.
Saturday, 26 July 2014
Impressions from the Eusebio Cup
From the outset I will deal with the two signings this week Bebe and Eliseu. To call the "reforcos" may be a bit of a stretch. Having seen them play last season I don't know that they are any better than the option we already have at those respective positions. Bebe may have potential to improve while Eliseu is a veteran and maybe has one good year left in him. The timing may have been good for Eliseu as Benito had his worst preseason match this far. That said, Eliseu did not look good at all. Neither did Bebe. But it is too early to pass judgement as they have only trained with the squad for two days. Even the next game they play won't be enough to pass a definitive judgement on them . By the end of the tournament in England in the next few days we should have a better idea.
Now as for the rest of the players:
Salvio - struggled some, should have performed better with Maxi as those two have played together on the same wing for years.
Derley - he shows flashes of natural talent but he still hasn't learned the system and the movements to perfection. I think he can perform better with more time under JJ's tutelage.
Cesar - his worst game so far.
Sidnei - played better than last game..
Joao Cancelo - its becoming clear that he should be the backup to Maxi and stay on the "A" squad.
Andre Almeida - had some good plays and some mess-ups. Just got back this week. We know his quality and multi-positional utility.
Ruben Amorim - solid.
Talisca - this kid can play. Again showing he is a workhorse, showed some great technical ability on a few plays. Continues to learn the system more and more. An excellent signing.
Ola John - played well again. He will likely be the third selection for wing but is definitely working hard to become one of the starting two.
Jara - definitely played hard. Miserable penalty attempt. Today he played better than Derley but I'm still doubtful he will remain on the squad though JJ is giving him opportunities.
Overall, the team played well. Had some sloppy breakdowns but these will be corrected with more training and correction from the coach. The new talent has brought some very good quality in Talisca, Cancelo, Benito, and Joao Texeira. I think these 4 will stay. The return of Ola John is very positive. We get Enzo back this week and what I expect to be the two starting defenders : Luisao and Lisandro Lopez have not yet touched the field in a game. I still question the utility of signing Bebe and Eliseu not because of their weak performances today, but because they don't really enhance the quality of the team at any position. Would the money spent on them not have been better spent retaining Siqueira ? Investing it in Guilavogui ? These are questions that remained unanswered for now. Given the quality we know Djavan has was it really wise to sign Eliseu, an older player we will never be able to sell and recover the investment on ? The answer will depend on how he performs.
As an assessment of the continued progress of the new players I think we can be happy Cesar and Benito though they need more improvement; Cancelo and Teixeira as well I think will be good additions. Talisca was an excellent signing. The return of Ola John is also positive.
As for the remaining players, our midfield is essentially the same as last year with Ruben, Enzo, Gaitan, Salvio, Almeida and now with Talisca added. Very strong. Fejsa returns in january to make it even stronger and Teixeira is a good addition of young blood to that group.
The defence will be as strong. Lisandro Lopez played as well last season in Spain as Garay did for us. Still have Luisao and Maxi. Benito/Eliseu and possibly Silvio leaves our defence strong as well.
And for the attack we still have many dangerous players like Lima, Derley, maybe Oliveira, and the prodigy child who will only grow and grow, Victor Andrade.
And of course there are many other names that could reinforce this list too but thats the basic quick summary
CARREGA BENFICA !
Wednesday, 23 July 2014
What we learned from the Marseille game
After watching this game, I am excited as Benfica supporter for several reasons. First, a quick glance of some key points I took from this game:
FC Porto: big signings for big holes
Overall they will be a stronger side than last year. They got some good new blood, a new coach, new system, Herrera is probably invigorated with his excellent World Cup performance. At the end of the day they had a terrible season last year and probably did a bit worse than they should have. I don't think that the changes they made thus far will be enough to make up the sizeable point difference between them and Benfica. I think Porto will probably make it out of their group in the Champions League and finish second in the league based on the transfer moves thus far.
Benfica made the necessary signings
GK:
ROMERO
Artur
Paulo Lopes
LD:
ELISEU
Benito
(Andre Almeida)
CD:
LUISAO
LISANDRO LOPEZ
Cesar
Jardel
Steven Vitoria *
RD:
MAXI
Andre Almeida
Joao Cancelo
CM:
GUILAVOGUI
ENZO PEREZ
Ruben Amorim
Talisca
Andre Almeida
Joao Teixeira
Fejsa (out until January)
WINGERS:
GAITAN
SALVIO
Ola John
Sulejmani
Pizzi
Candeias
(Nelson Oliveira can play winger if needed)
(Victor Andrade)
FORWARDS:
LIMA
DERLEY
Nelson Oliveira
Cardozo
I expect Luis Felipe and Djavan to be loaned out. Ivan Cavaleiro will also probably be loaned out. Farina is uncertain. The "B" team players Bernardo Sousa, Ruben Pinto, etc simply do not have the quality to be on the "A" team. I don't think Franco Jara will make the cut. I expect the team to add one more forward before the offseason is wrapped up. As such the starting 11 will look like this:
ROMERO;
Maxi, Lisandro Lopez, Luisao, Eliseu;
Guilavogui, Enzo/Ruben Amorim/Talisca;
Gaitan/Ola John, Salvio;
Lima, Derley
That is a powerhouse team that still has a lot of talent on the bench. In January the team gets an immediate boost with the return of Fejsa. If there are any weaknesses on the team between now and then that become evident, the club will sign someone to fix that problem. My contacts with lawyer David Dasilva indicate there may be big signings coming. This is a very strong lineup that can withstand an injury or two and a suspension or two and still be strong enough to do battle with anyone.
Friday, 18 July 2014
Benfica possible lineups
Standard:
KEEPER (new signing); Maxi, Cesar, Luisao, Andre Almeida; Ruben Amorim, Enzo Perez; Salvio, Gaitan; Lima e Derley.
Alternatively:
KEEPER (new signing); Maxi, Cesar, Luisao, Benito/Djavan; Andre Almeida, Enzo Perez; Salvio, Talisca, Gaitan; Lima.
If Enzo is sold:
KEEPER (new signing); Maxi, Cesar, Luisao, Benito/Djavan; Andre Almeida, Ruben Amorim; Salvio, Gaitan; Derley e Lima.
If Gaitan is sold as well then change him for Ola John.
Those lineups are solid and with the tuff pre season matches coming up should get finely tuned by the season kickoff.
They definitely need a keeper. From what I saw of Benito today and of Djavan last season for Academica, I don't think left defence will be the problem it once was before Siqueira. We know for certain that Andre Almeida can play the position well. If Gaitan or Enzo are sold we can be certain that top quality additions will be added immediately to help offset their loss. Upfront I don't think Derley represents any loss of quality vis-a-vis Rodrigo. Rodrigo plays for Spain's U-23 and is very young so that is why he is rated so well. But in reality is is not better than Derley. And Derley scored 8 more goals than him in the league last season. The attack is fine, the defence is fine. Goalie is a huge problem right now. If any of the top midfielders leave, excellent replacements will be brought in. In any event the midfield will still have many excellent players even if Gaitan and Enzo leave. In that scenario we would have at least: Salvio and Ola John to start; backups including: Sulejmani, Cavaleiro, Talisca, Candeias, Ruben Amorim and Andre Almeida. and possibly Nelson Oliveira and Bernardo Silva if they are kept around and not loaned out. Also Farina. Lets not forget about him as he is excellent.
Given the abundance of midfield talent I think Benfica should capitalize and sell one of Gaitan or Enzo. But not both as we need to have some continuity in midfield
BENFICA first pre-season match. Analysis and Review.
Here are my thoughts:
Artur - quite shaky. Benfica can definitely NOT have him as their starting keeper this season. They must sign a better alternative. Not only will Artur not "steal" ant points for the team all season, he is sure to personally cost the team several points. Decent backup, definitely NOT starter material.
Central Defence: Jardel played average. Didn't compromise the team at all but was unsteady at times and took some risks that didn't go as well as they would have if it were Luisao who had played. As for the new signing Cesar, he was solid. No mistakes. Showed some bursts of speed and was good in the air. Showed good awareness and chemistry with his new teammates.
Right Defence - Luis Miguel, the new signing had a good performance. He doesn't look good enough to bench Maxi. Joao Cancelo, from the B team looked very good. He combined solidly with Salvio. After a few jitters when he first came in, he shook that off and played solidly. I would say at this point he looks to be a better backup for Maxi than Luis Miguel.
Left Defence - Benito the new Swiss signing played well. Didn't compromise. Made the cross that led to the goal and combined well with Ola John.
Wings - Ola John had a very strong game. He still shows flashes of immaturity in some of his decisions but his cuts and ability to make diagonal runs as well as his solid dribble would have him at #3 choice for wingers behind Salvio and Gaitan at this point.
Centre of MF - Joao Teixeira from the B team played ok. He certainly doesn't seem to possess the quality needed to stay on the "A" team. Nor does Bernardo Silva. Benfica fans sometimes get too sentimental about players that develop through the club's youth system. Silva is wayy to small and would have trouble in European matches. He has quality, but needs to show much more quality than he did today to compensate for his lack of size and inability to win balls in the air. Teixeira should go back to the B team and Silva may benefit from being loaned to another Portuguese club to get playing time.
Ruben Pinto played. Not poorly, not great. Now the new signing Anderson Talisca had a very good debut. Aside from the goal, he should excellent presence and awareness of the way the coach wants them to play. He showed good vision, and passing and won many balls in the air. Talisca will definitely contribute on this team. If Enzo leaves, he will have big showed to fill but thus far has shown he has potential to do so. He is better attacking than Enzo. How he defends against top teams remains to be seen.
Forwards - Cardozo has got to go. His slowness and overall uselessness on the pitch hurts the team much more than his now rare goals help the team. Lima played excellent as always. Derley looks good. He is a workhorse and very physical with defenders. He tried to do too much on a good rush where he could have scored. A combination of Lima and Derley upfront gives good mobility to the attack and will be a nightmare for opposing defences. As for Franco Jara, he was awful and showed yet again that he has no place on this team. He will surely be sold or loaned once again.
Wednesday, 9 July 2014
Coaching will put Holland in Final
In this Holland vs Argentina match we need to look at several slices of this clash of two strong teams. First, we look at the group. The group of 23 players that each team coach has at it's disposal. On the whole, Holland has a stronger group of 23 players. But Argentina can present a slightly stronger starting 11 if we assess it on the basis of units of individual talent alone. With the absence of DiMaria however, that changes the equation. DiMaria is essentially the offensive motor of this team. Messi, despite all the undeserved hype around him, essentially does absolutely nothing all game. He walks, I repeat WALKS around the final third of the pitch, doesn't run, doesn't defend, doesn't pressure the opponents. He simply cherry picks and gets about 40 balls a game - which he promptly turns over to the opponent.
Argentina being a highly defensive team already, will be more so with the absence of DiMaria. This could change if Holland gets an early goal and forces them to open up.
Tactically, it's as big a mismatch as we saw yesterday. Holland having an absolute coaching mastermind who has succeeded at the highest levels of European football. He coaches at the cutting edge of excellence. On the other side, Sabella is a typically incompetent South American coach. One who has no success at the European club level and in many ways is stuck in the past thinking that previous South American success can somehow overcome the huge gap in quality between the European game and the weak South American game.
One strength the coach has though is his ability to keep Argentina tactically disciplined. He knows that having a one man attack (DiMaria) is not a recipe for success so he orients them into a very defensive posture with three central defenders and a cluttered midfield. It will be difficult for Holland to maintain consistent attacking under these circumstances. Again, an early goal could change that dynamic though. When it has the ball, argentina normally keeps 5 men at or behind the ball. Bery defensive, very conservative, inoffensive football is its status quo.
In terms of individual talent, Robben is heralded along with Messi as the star of their respective teams, Robben deserves the accolades. Messi does not. Robben is excellent and causes havoc with every touch of the ball. Messi gets the ball passed to him many times and quickly turns it over to the Defence. Van Gaal knows he has better offensive weapons and needs to tell his team to be patient with the argentine defensive wall. Enzo Perez and Mascherano are very dirty players and will offer many dirty fouls. Holland has to keep their cool and hold the ball, circulate, make Argentina chase it and eventually their offensive stars like Robben and Van Persie will make the difference as they always do. Argentina also has a very poor Keeper but he plays behind some stellar defenders. Rojo and Garay are as good as it gets and Holland must not lose confidence after being stopped time after time by Argentina's stellar Defence.
If the game stays tied at half, the coaching will make a difference as Van Gaal will be able to make better adjustments than Sabella. Both because he has a better bench and because he is smarter and knows the game at its highest level - the European level.
All said, I can't conceive of a way Argentina can win this game. The question is by how many will they lose. If Holland scores early, it could be a 2 or 3 goal difference by the time all is said and done. If Argentina can hold on until half time and keep it scoreless, then Holland may get more cautious and orient the team to more of a counter mode hoping for a simple 1-0 victory which capitalizes on Argentinian errors (of which they make very few). If it goes to extra time or shootout, again holland has the advantage as they simply have better and more offensive talents which could make the difference at any moment. My final prognosis is that Holland wins this game by 2 goals or more in regular time.
Then Argentina will go on to humiliate Brazil.
Tuesday, 8 July 2014
Brazilian Nationalism to blame for massacre
Brazil's humiliation today was always predicted in my previous blog posts. Anyone who knows the game and studies the game as I do saw how fragile and inept this Brazil squad. In one of my previous posts I indicated how Brazil would likely not even have qualified if they were not the host. They were certainly FIFA's favorite and blatant cheating by the referees got them out of the first round with highway robbery against Croatia, offside goals and an unbelievable tolerance for inexcusable violent play against all their opponents. This loss isn't about Neymar or Thiago Silva. Brazil would have been battered with them in the lineup. This loss is about Brazilian nationalism. That's why they have been outplayed in all games but the. Cameroon match. That's why they got humiliated today.
Brazil is a country. I love and visit often. But it's cancer is a nationalism so severe and so Intense that it would make Nazi Germany's third reich seem tame. Their flag worship is a cult of personality and they have a total inability to engage in thorough self criticism if it entails saying anything "bad" about Brazil.
Despite Germany having better talent at every position on the pitch, this game was the massacre that it was because of an incompetent coach. That said, he is the best coach Brazil has. Their football is stuck in the 1970's. The game has changed. But even in the Brazilian league which I watch often, they refuse to accept that the football played in continental Europe is far superior. Their sickening nationalism prevents them from admitting this. They can't admit that the best football is played in continental Europe. That would imply that Brazil doesnt play the best football. This is something they cannot admit.
In 1996 the English team embraced this reality. That English style football was a failure. It had some success in the past but the meticulous technical and tactical and strategic approaches to the game in continental Europe had far eclipsed it. England began to import coaches all through their league and national team. Foreign players flooded into England too. They learned the better way. They learned to evolve and their national league is now one of the best in the world. Their national team also has a bright future. They were able to admit their way was no longer the best. They adapted.
Brazilians cannot do this. They can't admit that Europe is the best. They can't see themselves having European coaches flood into their league and national team to improve their football. The nationalism is so entrenched and profound that it's their biggest enemy. Brazilian football has no strategy, no tactical logic. They don't know how to occupy space, how to play without the ball, it remains individual focused rather than engaged on whole unit concepts, they don't pressure in the opposing zone of construction, they leave wide spaces open for exploitation. Tactically and strategically, they would lose every match they played if they were competing in any European first division.
Coaches like Arrigo Sacchi and Sven Goran Eriksson changed the game in Europe decades ago. South American coaches can't ever succeed at the top flite European club level with few exceptions. And those who get it remain coaching there and don't return to South America. But Brazil has not one coach coaching at a top level in Europe. Their nationalism keeps them mired in their failed ways. Brazil will remain stuck in the past until they swallow their revolting nationalism and let Europeans come and teach them how to play the game. It will take a long time.
For now, they will continue to play far below their potential in the hands of incompetent Brazilian coaches. Amazingly Brazil doesn't even require training or certification of their coaches at any level. All they rely on is a Brazil flag waving smooth talker. That just won't cut it anymore. For Brazils sake, they need to eat some humble pie and learn from the Europeans. The great masters of the game.
I note that Argentina, while having a far more tactically disciplined team also has an incompetent South American coach who could never succeed in Europe. He will get taken to school by Van Gaal's genius and mastery.